Senate GOP’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Would Cut Aid to Low Earners, Benefit the Wealthy, Yale Report Finds

A sweeping legislative package backed by Senate Republicans would reduce incomes for low-income households while increasing those of higher earners, according to a Yale Budget Lab analysis released Monday. Dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” the proposal would cut Medicaid and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) spending while extending tax breaks that primarily benefit the wealthy.

Senate Republicans are pushing to pass the bill and send it to former President Donald Trump by their July 4 deadline. The Yale Budget Lab found that households in the bottom 20% of income—earning less than $13,350—would see their annual income fall by 2.9% (approximately $700) from 2026 through 2034. Meanwhile, those in the top 20%, with incomes above $120,000, would gain 2.2% (around $5,700) annually.

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“The bill shifts resources away from those at the lower end of the [income] distribution toward those at the top,” said Harris Eppsteiner, associate director of economic analysis at the Yale Budget Lab.

Eppsteiner noted that cuts to Medicaid and SNAP—programs critical to low-income Americans—would more than offset any tax relief provided to those households. In contrast, wealthier households stand to gain significantly from the bill’s tax provisions.

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The analysis did not include all elements of the legislation, such as changes to the Affordable Care Act or student loan programs, which could further affect household finances.

A Congressional Budget Office review of the House-passed version of the bill projected the bottom 10% of earners would lose $1,600 annually, while the top 10% would gain $12,000. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill would increase the national debt by $4 trillion through 2034, including interest.